Spread sheet is telling me a different story

directionI just completed my first forecast on my cash flow and profitability on the basis I move to a shop front. It does not look good. Having said that you have to bear in mind I am a glass half empty type of person.

The forecasts do not support my instinct that says it would be the right move. Who should I listen to my spreadsheet or my instinct?

The story my 5 year forecast spreads sheet is telling me is that the first two years after my move to the shop front, I will make losses. This is due to fit out costs and much higher running costs.

Year 3 to 5 are profitable. Year 3 profits are lower than my current profits. Year 4 profits are the same and year 5 profits increase by a significant amount.

In addition, my fee base increases by a significant amount over a 5 year period.

Is all the stress, hassle and risk of this venture worth it? I don’t know. All I can say is despite the forecast low returns, considering the amount of cash and myself I would put in, I still want to do this. I wish my emotions/feeling  would listen to my logical mind and tell me not to go forward with this venture.

One of my key driving force is I want to build something significant entirely from scratch and look at it in  a few years and say to myself I did this. Of course it could fail, I would not be left with any security for my old age. I would probably go in a state of depression. Yet I still want to do this!

I do not have the support of an established franchisor and yet to be frank I am following their model. Isn’t  this stupid?  I just wish I would settle for a much easier life.